Reactions to the Ethiopia-Somaliland Port Deal: Reshaping Horn of Africa
The recent Port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland has elicited a wide range of reactions from international organizations and countries as well as diplomats and scholars.
We will provide a concise background summary of this development before examining the range of reactions.
Ethiopia held a rich and pivotal relationship with the Red Sea, dating back to the Axumite Kingdom, the country thrived as a significant trading power through strategic access to this vital sea route. The Red Sea served as an integral passage for Ethiopia’s trade, fostering connections with distant lands and cultures. This prominent ancient civilisation utilised this maritime gateway to establish bustling trade routes, enabling the exchange of goods, ideas, and culture. It was the lifeline that facilitated the growth and prosperity of the Axumite Kingdom.
Despite its historical link as a coastal nation adjacent to this critical sea route, Ethiopia’s narrative took an unexpected turn in 1993. Following Eritrea’s independence, a shift occurred, leaving Ethiopia landlocked.
As a result, Ethiopia has encountered profound shifts over the past three decades, evolving from being a proprietor to a lessee of seaports. It lost its two vital seaports, Massawa and Assab. Subsequently, the country had to lease trade facilities from Eritrea and Djibouti, shifting from ownership to rent-based access.
Even this shrunken seaport arrangement was short-lived, notably disrupted by the Ethio-Eritrean conflict spanning 1998 to 2000. Consequently, Ethiopia found itself heavily reliant on Port Djibouti as its primary seaport.
While the supply of seaport facilities steadily declining, the demand for them heading in opposite directions. Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country in the world.
Three decades ago, Ethiopia’s population stood at approximately 46-47 million, with a relatively modest GDP ranging between 10-13 billion dollars. However, in the last 20 years, the nation’s import-export activities surged impressively, surmounting a twentyfold increase in value. In 2024, Ethiopia is anticipated to rank among the top 20 fastest-growing economies worldwide according to the IMF’s projections. Presently, Ethiopia’s population has soared to over 120 million, with a staggering GDP escalation from $13 billion three decades ago to a robust $160 billion currently
This remarkable economic and demographic growth contrasts starkly with the inadequate development of crucial infrastructure vital for accommodating and facilitating such rapid expansion.
Recently, the nation has shifted its focus to alleviate the problem, emphasising the critical need for secure, reliable, and unrestricted seaport access.
Thus, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland on January 1, 2024, that aims at fulfilling the primary goals of both parties. It symbolises not just a bilateral agreement but a model for regional collaboration. It paves the way for Ethiopia to utilise maritime resources in a mutually beneficial manner, fostering economic and political partnerships between both nations. Ethiopia’s goal is not just to secure additional ports for its own growth but to participate in shared regional development. This deal marks a historic shift in the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics.
However, the deal has widely sparked considerable positive and negative reactions. International organisations and countries condemned the agreement, citing concerns over Somalia’s sovereignty and regional stability.
Somalia strongly opposed the deal, considering it a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and called the agreement an “aggression” by Ethiopia and sought support from the United Nations and the African Union. But Somaliland firmly declared its commitment to its independence, which it established three decades ago, insisting its lack of interest in any negotiations suggesting a return to a malfunctioned unified nation. African Union (AU), on its part, emphasised the importance of maintaining peace, security, and stability in the Horn of Africa and appealed for negotiations between Ethiopia and Somalia. The US condemned the deal and urged diplomatic dialogue to resolve the issue, while the European Union expressed concerns about the deal’s impact on the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia and the overall stability of the Horn of Africa region. The Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation also voiced solidarity with Somalia. Turkey called for direct negotiations between Somalia and Somaliland, reiterating its commitment to Somalia’s sovereignty. Egypt condemned the deal and emphasised the need to respect Somalia’s territorial integrity, while the UK urged restraint and dialogue to peacefully resolve the issue, reaffirming respect for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But some British politicians have used the accord to press for the UK to recognise Somaliland as its former protectorate.
On the other perspective, the news of the port deal is seen as a historic milestone by several diplomats and economic and political analysts. Former Assistant Secretary of State of the United States and Ambassador Tibor Nagy, who also served as an ambassador to Addis Ababa, reacted to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. He called on the Somalia government to focus on stabilising itself and to refrain from meddling in the affairs of Somaliland and Ethiopia, particularly regarding their historic agreement. This agreement is significant as it enables landlocked Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea. Ambassador Nagy emphasised that Somalia should concentrate on solving its internal problems and stop criticising neighbouring countries. He also criticised the Biden administration, stating unfortunately on Africa the US lacks vision. The Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal would be the perfect opportunity for the US to be flexible and see what develops instead of reverting to its questionable “one Somalia” policy which is not based on history.
John Peter Pham, another American diplomat, shares Tabor Nagy’s views, stating that the agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland is a reflection of the existing realities and benefits both parties. During his interview with the BBC, notion of the stable and self-governing Somaliland rejoining a union is implausible. He noted that Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared independence prior to the Italian-administered Somalia, and received recognition from various countries even before Somalia. Later both countries entered into a union to form the Republic of Somalia. Pham characterised the current Somali Republic as a failed state, in stark contrast to Somaliland, which he views as the most stable state in the region. He pointed out that it has been over three decades since Somalia had any governance over Somaliland. Despite this, several nations maintain diplomatic counsellors in Somaliland and have made significant investments there.
An American political-economic analyst for Africa, Lawrence Freeman, views the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU as a potential model for economic development in Africa. He believes this agreement, covering cooperation in social, economic, political, and military fields, could accelerate regional and global trade. Freeman sees this as a step towards regional integration and economic linkage among nations in Africa. He also notes the existence of political forces aiming to destabilise the region and advises Somalis to refrain from inflammatory statements, advocating for a peaceful resolution between Somalia and Somaliland. Freeman highlights the complexity of problems in the Horn of Africa stemming from colonial history and urges moving forward beyond historical antagonisms. He emphasises the MoU’s importance for Ethiopia, especially in terms of import-export trade and naval capacity, and sees Ethiopia playing a major role as a new member of BRICS in fostering regional cooperation.
A Moscow based American political analyst, Andrew Korybko, on his part has expressed significant viewpoints on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Korybko views the MoU as a triumph of Ethiopian diplomacy, asserting that it unlocks the country’s geo-economic potential and averts future problems linked to its landlocked status. He commends Ethiopia for its strategic decision to recognise Somaliland, which not only resolves Ethiopia’s port dilemma but also pre-empts regional instability. The political analyst notes that the MoU challenges the regional security dilemma and the fear of smaller coastal states that Ethiopia, as a larger hinterland country, might become a hegemon. He highlights that this agreement discredits ultra-nationalist ideologies and showcases that cooperation between diverse countries is achievable. Korybko believes the MoU could lead other neighbours of Ethiopia to reconsider their previous refusals to lease commercial military ports. This potential change could create more regional connectivity corridors and attract foreign investment. He also suggests that the physical re-establishment of the Ethiopian Navy will stabilise the region and secure maritime logistics. Korybko points out the negative reactions from entities like Eritrea and Al-Shabaab, and the Federal Government of Somalia, who view the agreement as an annexation. He also discusses the potential reactions from international bodies like the United Nations and countries such as Russia and China, considering Ethiopia’s recent membership in BRICS. Korybko sees the MoU as a potential catalyst for broader regional cooperation in the Horn of Africa. He emphasises that Somaliland will benefit from its role in facilitating Ethiopia’s global trade, particularly through the modernised port of Berbera, and envisions this development attracting more foreign investment to the region.
In conclusion, the Ethiopia-Somaliland Port deal represents not just a significant milestone in regional cooperation but a beacon of hope and progress for the Horn of Africa. As we have delved into the multifaceted reactions to this agreement, it is clear that the benefits of this deal extend far beyond the immediate interests of Ethiopia and Somaliland. This historic pact paves the way for a future where mutual respect, economic collaboration, and strategic partnership are the cornerstones of regional stability and prosperity.
The deal’s importance cannot be overstated for landlocked Ethiopia, which has long sought to reclaim its maritime accessibility. By securing a port facility in Somaliland, Ethiopia not only diversifies its trade routes but also strengthens its economic resilience. This is a strategic move, aligning with the country’s aspirations to become a key player in the global economy, as evidenced by its impressive growth and development in recent years.
For Somaliland, this agreement is a testament to its stability and growing relevance on the international stage. It underscores the fact that constructive engagement and diplomacy can yield significant benefits, even in a complex geopolitical landscape. Somaliland’s commitment to maintaining its sovereignty and pursuing development through international partnerships is commendable and serves as a model for other nations in similar circumstances.
Furthermore, the Ethiopia-Somaliland Port deal is a prototype of how African nations can work together towards shared goals. It challenges the traditional narrative of dependency and paves the way for a new era of African self-reliance and interdependence. This is in line with the African Union’s vision of an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena.
As we witness the unfolding of this landmark agreement, it is essential to focus on the broader implications for regional stability, economic growth, and the promotion of peaceful co-existence. The Ethiopia-Somaliland Port deal is more than an economic arrangement; it is a symbol of hope and a testament to the power of diplomacy and visionary leadership.
At Ethiopia Today Official, we view this agreement as a positive step forward, not only for Ethiopia and Somaliland but for the entire Horn of Africa. It is a harbinger of a future where cooperation, mutual respect, and shared prosperity are the guiding principles of international relations. We commend both Ethiopia and Somaliland for their foresight and commitment to a partnership that promises to be a game-changer for the region’s geopolitical and economic landscape.
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