Our today’s post looks deep into how some Arab medias and others reported about the news of GERD generating electricity. We have selected the reports of four major medias, and reviewed and presented the expert analysis on each of the report.
Let’s get straight into the report.
The Arab Parliament expressed support for Egypt and Sudan after Ethiopia announced its unilateral operation of the mega-dam it is building on the Blue Nile according to pan-Arab daily newspaper Aharq Al-Awsat.
Aharq Al-Awsat:
The Parliament slammed Addis Ababa’s “rejected” move, noting that it represents a “serious violation of the water rights” of the two downstream countries the reports adds. Ethiopia started on Sunday its “limited” operation of a few turbines of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a first stage for electricity production.
But Cairo denounced the start-up saying Addis Ababa was “persisting in its violations” of a 2015 Declaration of Principles which prohibits any of the parties from taking unilateral actions in the use of the river’s water.
Arab Parliament Speaker Adel al-Asoumi denounced in a statement on Monday Ethiopia’s announcement.
He said Addis Ababa’s step is a clear violation of international and bilateral agreements regulating the use of the Nile River’s waters as an international river. “These include Ethiopia’s pledges signed by its Prime Minister in the 2015 declaration of principles agreement” he said. He urged Addis Ababa to refrain from unilateral actions that would harm the water interests of the downstream countries.
“These actions will not change the legal and historical nature of the internationally recognized water quotas for Egypt and Sudan” added Asoumi. He reiterated the Parliament’s firm stance on reaching a legally binding agreement to fill and operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Gerd without harming Egypt and Sudan’s water interests.
He underscored the Parliament’s support to the measures both countries would take to preserve their water rights as an “integral part of Arab national security.” The $4.2-billion project is ultimately expected to produce more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, more than doubling Ethiopia’s current electricity output.
Malcolm any point to make here please?
Sure, I have just few points to make, here.
Firstly, the Arab Parliament is the legislative body of the Arab League created by the Arab states. I don’t think whether the Speaker’s tone is right as representing the interstate institution like the Arab Parliament for addressing the situation. The statement does look like it’s coming rather from Egypt not the Arab Parliament.
Secondly, The Parliament stated that Ethiopia’s move represents a “serious violation of the water rights” of the two downstream countries. I don’t think Ethiopia’s starting of generating electricity using its own natural resource seriously violates the water rights of the downstream countries. Ethiopia, being the source of Blue Nile River which is the major tributary of the Nile River contributing over 85% has also the right to utilise its God given resource. Such remarks overlook the concerns and the existing problem of the other party Ethiopia. The colonial era rights of the Nile River have violated the water rights of the upstream countries including Ethiopia. Not only it violated the upstream countries’ rights but also they were totally ignored. That’s history now but the consequences are huge and ongoing.
As prime minister Abiy stated on his speech on inaugural ceremony of the partial commencing of power generation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Gerd, Ethiopia Never Wants Sudanese and Egyptians to Starve or Thirst. The Blue Nile Water is flowing to Sudan and Egypt as usual while generating power to the Ethiopian people.
Prime minister Abiy stressed that the Gerd will benefit all African brothers and sisters including Sudanese and Egyptians. He underscored that Ethiopia does not want to harm anyone. The country’s goal is to use the power for its large population that has never seen electricity and to alleviate poverty.
Thanks Malcolm.
Pleasure!
Okay, Let’s look into the reports by the Irish Times.
The Irish Times:
Egypt and Sudan fear Ethiopia’s dam could deprive them of Nile water supply the Irish Times report says.
After years of wrangling over Ethiopia’s controversial dam on the Blue Nile, the massive turbines have begun producing electricity generating fear in Egypt and Sudan that the life-giving flow of the river will be seriously reduced by the diversion of water to fill a vast lake behind the barrier. While Ethiopia argues the $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is essential for development, Egypt and Sudan say the dam the largest in Africa could deprive them of their fair share of the Nile waters which have nourished crops since ancient times. Egypt’s seminal civilisation, 3,100-30 BC depended on Nile floods.
The nearly-completed dam, which captures 85 per cent of the Blue Nile’s flow is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity, provide power to 60 million of the country’s 116 million people and contribute to the development of infrastructure, manufacturing, and health and educational systems.
The Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia and is a major tributary of the river Nile. Start-and-stall negotiations have soured relations between the parties ever since construction began in 2011. While Sudan expects benefits from the dam including electricity it says 20 million Sudanese could lose irrigation water.
The Nile flow is a matter of life and death for Egypt, which has warned that “all options remain on the table”, meaning the use of military force if its needs are not met. Ethiopia has refused to abide by the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention compelling upstream states to consult downstream countries when initiating mega projects, or to provide a commitment on the amount of water Egypt would receive once the dam is completed. Egypt is highly vulnerable because it has reached the water poverty level of 550-560 cubic meters per capita a year, about half the minimum global water level required to sustain decent life.
Former Egyptian irrigation minister Mohamed Nasr al-Din Allam told Al-Monitor: “For 30 years, we have been suffering from water poverty and from a food gap, because we produce less than we consume.” Consequently, Egypt has been compelled to import food due to the shortage of water. Egypt’s share of Nile water has not increased during this time to keep up with population growth he said. “This means that Egypt’s annual share of water amounts to 60 billion cubic metres, while the country needs 114 billion cubic metres” to provide for its 102 million inhabitants.
“Therefore, compromising Egypt’s share of the Nile water is a red line” he stated. Egypt “will not allow this major problem to continue because of Ethiopia’s unilateral actions”. Mr Allam said Cairo wanted to resume negotiations to reach a “binding legal agreement on the mechanisms of operating the dam”. The African Union, which has previously mediated talks has been urged to resume its effort to end the stand-off which could precipitate a major crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Malcolm would you mind adding some remarks on this?
Yes, sure. In matters of the Gerd, the interesting thing we notice time and again is a wide range of emphases and predictions of future problems on the people of Egypt or Sudan. Too much emphasis on what will happen on downstream countries but lack of due attention on the current and ongoing sufferings and problems of Ethiopia and its people.
The focuses are only on the claimed threats, which we don’t think is fair. Let’s ask ourselves this question. What is the likelihood of the predicted threats to occur? What is its percentage? But Ethiopia is facing the present visible problem and yet other parties don’t care about it. As a fair and considerate nation, Ethiopia however cares for the other parties. As we said, no one can stop the water from its usual course of flowing downwards. Ethiopia is situated on the highland, usually known as the tower of Africa. No earthly power can prevent the water flowing to lowland from highland. This means that Ethiopia naturally can’t block the water. Or Ethiopia has no any intention to hold the Blue Nile River from flowing down to Sudan and Egypt as Abiy clearly underlined.
Let me add one more point here with regard to Egypt’s warning that “all options remain on the table”, meaning the use of military force if its needs are not met. That’s fine but Ethiopia never predicts war to happen but peace and more cooperation among the regional states because of Gerd. Actually Egypt either directly or indirectly has never stopped waging war against Ethiopia in its entire history.
Therefore, Ethiopians won’t be surprised if Egypt thinks war.
Let’s be clear, finishing the war may not be easy as to start it. It carries heavy & complicated consequences. Egypt may consider itself as a super military power in the region and also currently sees Ethiopia as if it is weakened due to the internal conflict. This is miscalculation and my advice to them is not to be deceived by such wrong interpretation. Look Ethiopia is a very strange country when it comes to foreign invasion. Ethiopians don’t usually like boasting. When you fight a fair & war of justice Almighty is always on your side. So you don’t fear and intimidated by what other party or parties say.
Ethiopia doesn’t seek approval from Egypt to undertake its water projects, that’s what Egyptians are looking for; to keep its strange colonial era monopoly rights on the Nile River. This is the primary concern and threat for them. But this is unfair and totally unacceptable. Ethiopia has full right to use its own resources as long as it doesn’t significantly harm others.
Thanks for that.
Let’s see what the Al-Monitor report says.
AL-MONITOR:
Egypt reacts as Ethiopia switches on first Nile dam turbine says Al-Monitor. Cairo continues to call on Addis Ababa to end its unilateral measures when it comes to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
An Egyptian official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “We have not received any official information from the Ethiopian side since the start of this trial operation. Ethiopia is still following the policy of imposing a fait accompli without any prior consultations with the downstream countries.” He added, “The Nile cannot be managed unilaterally by any of the riparian countries. We discussed in the negotiations the importance of linking the Gerd with the system of dams on the Blue Nile, which Ethiopia rejects.”
The fifth item on the Declaration of Principles between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in March 2015 states that all parties should agree on rules for the first filling of dam and its annual operation, and that Ethiopia should “inform the downstream countries of any unforeseen or urgent circumstances requiring adjustments.”
The fifth item also calls for a coordination mechanism among the three countries. Yet none of the provisions were implemented by Ethiopia, which completed the first and second filling without the approval of either Egypt or Sudan.
Karim Kamal, an Egyptian engineer specializing in water facilities told Al-Monitor “Operating one or two turbines in the Gerd does not have a direct negative impact on Egypt at the present time,” because “the quantities of water expected to pass from the dam after the partial operation remain equal to the quantities that were coming out of the Gerd’s middle spillway.” But, he added, “the greatest harm is in the permanent operation of the dam without coordination with Egypt and Sudan.”
The tests of the first turbine ran from late January until February 14, 2022. The current quantities of water in the dam will not affect Egypt, he said, as “the High Dam can accommodate quantities of water up to 130 billion cubic meters, and the Toshka spillway’s capacity is 56 billion cubic meters. However, it is impossible in international rivers to have single management of a water source in the upper river without consulting with the downstream countries.”
Hany noted, “Egypt is taking many measures to confront the Gherd’s potential risks and water poverty in general by providing alternative and non-traditional sources of water, such as reusing wastewater, and desalinating seawater in the northern coasts and on the Red Sea using clean energy, while improving the efficiency of the water management system.”
During his speech, Ahmed defended the largest hydroelectric dam project in Africa. Power from the dam could also be exported to Europe to reduce gas emissions, he was quoted as saying. Ahmed also said that power generation from the dam will benefit the downstream countries as well.
Any point to make here, please?
Not that much we can add but let me say something says Malcolm. We really admire the Egypt’s measures to mitigate the water shortage. This is the right and the wise move for Egypt which doesn’t affect anyone. This is what we have been saying so far. If Egypt worries about the water poverty too much it has to find alternative solutions instead of waiting for someone else do this for them. They need to find solutions to keep some waters from the Nile river from going into the Mediterranean Sea for their drought seasons. Look they are jealous about the artificial lakes created in Ethiopia due to the Gerd Construction saying that Ethiopia is holding the water. And they want Ethiopia to release more water during their prolonged drought period. Egypt need to solve its own problem instead of expecting unfair benefit from Ethiopia. Ethiopia is doing that same similar thing.
Thanks Malcolm. My pleasure.
Let’s move to our last review from Ahramonline.
Ahramonline:
Ahramonline starts its headline with “GERD The politics of water.” Ethiopia has started operating the first two turbines of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Gerd without prior coordination with either Sudan or Egypt.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that the two turbines were in operation on Sunday, adding that they would alleviate the country’s energy shortages and that Ethiopia would soon be in a position to export clean energy to its neighbours, and possibly to Europe should the west help build further dams.
Hours after Ahmed’s announcement, the Foreign Ministry in Cairo said the unilateral move like the unilateral fillings of the Gherd reservoir during the last two summers placed Ethiopia in violation of the 2015 Declaration of Principles. Similarly, Sudan said it considered the move a “fundamental breach” of Ethiopia’s international legal commitments.
Cairo was not blindsided by the Ethiopian move. It had been widely trailed. Nor was Egypt surprised by the timing. That Ethiopia should chose to act just as Senegalese President Macky Sall, the new chair of the African Union AU was getting ready to try to bring the three parties to the table was predictable.
“When Sall was in Cairo late last month he said that he wished to see a restart to negotiations. He received Egypt’s support despite profound skepticism over the intentions of Ethiopia” said the official.
For Cairo, he continued, it is clear that Ethiopia “intends to keep wasting time while it is moves on with its plans without any consideration for downstream countries. Abiy Ahmed does not want a deal. He negotiated one in 2019 and when the deal was ready for signing he ordered his delegation home from Washington.”
In 2019, a deal was expected to be signed in Washington following intensive negotiations, but Ethiopia backed out at the last moment. Since then, Egypt with the help of France and the US twice managed to table disagreements over Gherd for the attention of the U N Security Council which requested the AU to mediate. Two successive chairs of the A U, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo DRC subsequently failed to secure a deal, despite Western support.
The new chair Senegal, was expected to continue work on a reconciliatory document prepared by the DRC, with direct US support and had consulted with the concerned parties. Egypt and Sudan according to diplomatic sources had agreed in principle to work with the document, while Ethiopia’s position remained ambiguous.
Any intervention here, Malcolm?
Yes, just a quick point, Ethiopia never violates international legal commitments as we said earlier. The US’s role in Gerd not welcomed by Ethiopians as it always favours Egypt. Yes In 2019 a deal was expected to be signed in Washington following intensive negotiations but Ethiopia had to refrain from going into it as it violated its own interest because of the Trump administration’s excessive pressure on Ethiopia. The US president Donald Trump even went into saying that Egypt would blow the Gerd. This dam is fully financed by Ethiopians, which was also another point of scepticism for Ethiopia towards the role of US from the very beginning. The US had used its power to block funds from international institutions like World Bank and IMF to finance the Gerd in favour of Egyptians while keeping Ethiopians under the darkness and poverty. Realising this, Ethiopia opted for its own financial sources to execute the Gerd project.
How on earth you would sit on the same negotiation table under such condition? You need to clear off any such barriers of communications and relations before moving any further.
Thanks.
